JP Morgan prognostiziert weiteren Rückgang der OPEC-Kapazitätsreserven im Jahr 2022

Jan 12 (Reuters) – JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) said on Wednesday it expects additional capacity from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to fall further through 2022, generating a higher risk premium for oil prices.

JP Morgan forecasts oil prices to exceed $125 a barrel this year and $150 in 2023. „We see growing recognition in the market of the lack of global investment in supply,“ the bank said.

Oil prices hit two-month highs on Wednesday on tight supplies as crude inventories in the U.S., the world’s top consumer, fell to their lowest level since 2018, coupled with a weaker dollar and an easing of concerns about the Omicron variant of the coronavirus.

Assuming production or supply is in line with current quotas, OPEC’s spare capacity will fall to 4% of total production capacity by the fourth quarter of this year, from 13% as of the third quarter of 2021, the investment bank said in a note.

JPM said this underperformance comes at a critical point, when other global producers are faltering, and the combination of underinvestment within OPEC+ nations and rising post-pandemic oil demand will combine for a potential energy crisis.

(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bangalore. Edited in Spanish by Javier Leira)