Goldman hebt Ölpreisprognose aufgrund des russischen Angebotsschocks an

Mar 8 (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) raised its Brent price forecast for 2022 and 2023, arguing that the global economy could face „the biggest energy supply shocks in history“ given Russia’s key global role.

The bank raised its Brent spot price forecast for 2022 to $135 per barrel from $98, and its outlook for 2023 to $115 per barrel from $105.

Reports point to more than half of March cargoes remaining unsold, which, if sustained, could represent a 3 million barrel-per-day decline in Russian seaborne crude and oil product exports, which would be the fifth-largest one-month disruption since World War II, Goldman Sachs said in a note dated March 7.

Although Russian crude imports have not been sanctioned, if this were to occur, the United States would be left alone in such a move, without the participation of its allies in Europe, as they rely on Russia for natural gas and crude, the sources said.

Russia is the world’s second-largest oil exporter, with about 7 million barrels per day of crude and oil products combined.

„In the near term, coping with such a supply shock would require the combined help of global strategic reserves, OPEC core, Iran and higher prices to reduce consumption,“ the bank said.

A slowdown in talks with Iran over its nuclear program, which would end sanctions on its oil sales, also adds to price pressures as Russia demands that the U.S. guarantee that the sanctions it faces will not affect its trade with Tehran. China also raised new demands, the sources said.

Crude oil prices were rising on Tuesday, with Brent above $127 a barrel by 1052 GMT, as fears of sanctions against Russian oil and fuel exports raised supply concerns.